Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bf3…f2fa other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$459 (+41%) realized +$432 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$389
14 days+$335
30 days+$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$213
politics 26% +$583
sports 13% +$80
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -41.1% -46.7% 17% 17% +46.0%
≤30d 47 -35.4% -41.5% 21% 21% +32.6%
≤90d 47 -35.4% -41.5% 21% 21% +32.6%
all 47 -35.4% -41.5% 21% 21% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 21% +32.6%
10% -47.1% 21% +19.9%
15% -52.2% 21% +8.3%
20% -56.9% 21% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$11 · ×7.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)47 / 59
History coverage39d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 8¢ 9¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 38¢ 53¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 63¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 26¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 21 $52 +$176 +341%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $103 −$20 -19%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $209 +$404 +193%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $29 +$28 +97%
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$26 +86%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $44 +$39 +90%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $25 +$29 +114%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 8¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $83 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 24h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $103 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 93¢ $613 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.48 · official $227.48 (match) · 71 history records