Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0bf4…4e78
crypto · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$35 -48%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 4 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 19¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 27¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 41¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 66¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$26
other 28% −$10
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
≤30d 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
≤90d 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
all 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.7% 27% -62.5%
10% -61.7% 27% -66.1%
15% -65.4% 20% -69.3%
20% -68.8% 20% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.94 · official $3.95 (match) · 25 history records