Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bf4…348d sports 645 markets active 1h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$292 (-6%) realized −$280 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%307W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$29
14 days+$32
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$117
other 25% −$71
crypto 4% −$68
world 2% +$16
politics 1% −$21
tech 1% −$18
culture 0% +$14
finance 0% −$10
weather 0% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +16.3% +5.2% 55% 52% -1.9%
≤30d 126 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 47% -11.0%
≤90d 344 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 42% -19.1%
all 638 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 47% -14.4%
10% -23.4% 45% -22.6%
15% -30.8% 41% -30.1%
20% -37.6% 35% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses307 / 331
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)638 / 645
History coverage365d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? No 84¢ 81¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $20 +$24 +120%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$3 -22%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$18 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$21 +135%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $3 +$3 +97%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $7 +$2 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $11 −$9 -77%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $10 +$7 +64%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $25 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $12 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $5 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 45¢ $20 40h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $15 45h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $15 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $15 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $24 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $31 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 66¢ $11 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.48 · official $42.48 (match) · 1416 history records