Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0B 0x0bf5…6213 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$107 (-6%) realized −$282 · open +$175

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$166per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$1,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-0.5%	-10.0%	60%	60%	-20.5%
≤30d	6	+6.7%	-3.5%	67%	67%	-14.8%
≤90d	6	+6.7%	-3.5%	67%	67%	-14.8%
all	6	+6.7%	-3.5%	67%	67%	-14.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.5%	67%	-14.8%
10%	-12.7%	67%	-22.9%
15%	-21.1%	67%	-30.4%
20%	-28.9%	50%	-37.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$79 vs −$183 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.86 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$1,103

Realized−$282

Unrealized+$175

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions5

Markets (closed)6 / 11

History coverage9d

Avg bet$166

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	No	70¢	94¢	$243	$324	+$82 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$250	$286	+$36 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$250	$207	−$43 (-17%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Brazil	53¢	94¢	$100	$176	+$76 (+76%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$85	$109	+$24 (+29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$209	+$139	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$130	+$79	+61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Jun 19	$100	−$100	-100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 19	$266	−$266	-100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$76	+$53	+69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$101	+$43	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	70¢	$246	1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	53¢	$102	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$209	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$130	11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	74¢	$266	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	59¢	$100	6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	58¢	$76	8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	8d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta	BUY Yes	77¢	$86	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$258	8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$258	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.27 · official $1,103.27 (match) · 27 history records