Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0bf7…0fb8 other 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,155 (+11%) realized +$1,079 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%31W / 16L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$233
14 days−$315
30 days+$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$333
sports 26% +$118
politics 21% +$873
world 8% +$473
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.7% -11.0% 65% 50% -13.5%
≤30d 47 +4.7% -5.3% 66% 53% +1.9%
≤90d 47 +4.7% -5.3% 66% 53% +1.9%
all 47 +4.7% -5.3% 66% 53% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 53% +1.9%
10% -14.3% 38% -7.8%
15% -22.6% 21% -16.7%
20% -30.2% 15% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$79 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,581
Realized+$1,079
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses31 / 16
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions16
Markets (closed)47 / 69
History coverage42d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $400 $464 +$64 (+16%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $312 $307 −$5 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 93¢ $130 $150 +$20 (+15%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 91¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$36 -70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $141 +$49 +34%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$76 +68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $623 +$187 +30%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $415 −$368 -89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$17 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $121 +$40 +33%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $404 +$60 +15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$33 -54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 −$22 -36%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $161 +$29 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $82 +$18 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $170 −$154 -91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$33 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $111 +$31 +28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $160 −$3 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $273 +$11 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $208 +$10 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $207 +$70 +34%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 12 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $131 −$100 -76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 10 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $10 +$18 +179%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,117 +$385 +34%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $994 +$470 +47%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $755 +$506 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 44¢ $15 5m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 6m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia vs. South Africa BUY 49¢ $25 9m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 10m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 37¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 48¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 44¢ $31 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 13h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $301 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 13¢ $21 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $131 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $47 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,580.76 · official $1,725.76 · 206 history records