Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bfa…5106 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$393 (-24%) realized −$393 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$45
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$232
other 19% −$77
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 62% -4.7%
≤30d 17 -12.1% -20.5% 53% 53% -19.6%
≤90d 26 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 46% -26.5%
all 26 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 46% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 46% -26.5%
10% -33.9% 27% -33.5%
15% -40.3% 19% -39.9%
20% -46.1% 12% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$55 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage58d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $178 +$58 +33%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $149 +$33 +22%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $104 −$103 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $64 −$11 -17%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $35 +$4 +13%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $53 +$26 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 +$136 +139%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $13 +$5 +42%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $12 +$7 +58%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$24 +121%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $13 +$2 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $65 −$53 -80%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $99 −$98 -99%
Cagliari: Stefano Travaglia vs Jesper de Jong Apr 28 $41 −$41 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Apr 28 $35 +$7 +19%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $109 +$18 +16%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 Apr 28 $92 −$59 -64%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $123 +$23 +19%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $7 $0 +8%
Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $192 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $178 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $139 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $43 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $149 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $104 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 26¢ $13 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 75¢ $38 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 79¢ $40 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 52¢ $26 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $2 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $37 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 26¢ $35 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 61¢ $54 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 61¢ $25 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $53 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $77 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $98 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records