Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0bfb…26a7 world 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53,926 (+36%) realized +$53,597 · open +$329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate75%153W / 51L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day108.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$33,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$12,468
other 19% +$252
politics 8% −$287
crypto 7% +$4,351
tech 6% +$782
culture 4% +$282
finance 1% +$83
sports 0% +$92
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +7.3% -3.0% 79% 41% -5.0%
≤30d 204 +10.0% -0.5% 75% 43% +4.2%
≤90d 204 +10.0% -0.5% 75% 43% +4.2%
all 204 +10.0% -0.5% 75% 43% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 43% +4.2%
10% -10.0% 24% -5.8%
15% ← realistic here -18.7% 16% -14.9%
20% -26.7% 12% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$556) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$161 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$33,159
Realized+$53,597
Unrealized+$329
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses153 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions186
Markets (closed)204 / 297
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$504
Trades / day108.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 186 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 95¢ $1,270 $1,499 +$228 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 70¢ $1,269 $1,411 +$142 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 48¢ $1,256 $1,116 −$140 (-11%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 89¢ $1,006 $1,081 +$75 (+7%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,110 $1,066 −$44 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $891 $892 +$1 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 86¢ $846 $865 +$19 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $742 $798 +$56 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 69¢ $613 $732 +$119 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 59¢ 90¢ $433 $669 +$235 (+54%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 98¢ $645 $649 +$4 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $557 $591 +$34 (+6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 60¢ 43¢ $813 $580 −$232 (-29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $656 $500 −$155 (-24%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $427 $449 +$22 (+5%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $364 $410 +$46 (+13%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $359 $400 +$41 (+11%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 20¢ 98¢ $77 $382 +$305 (+399%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $324 $362 +$38 (+12%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $324 $358 +$34 (+10%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $348 $354 +$6 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $317 $348 +$31 (+10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $346 $338 −$8 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $346 $322 −$24 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $800 +$130 +16%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $314 +$197 +63%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $237 +$41 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $182 −$107 -59%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 25 $282 +$24 +8%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $495 +$105 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $98 +$102 +104%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $364 +$79 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $192 +$58 +30%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $232 $0 +0%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 22 $109 +$2 +2%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $187 +$2 +1%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 22 $379 +$5 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $54 −$24 -44%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 22 $1,318 +$16 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $168 +$25 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $890 −$50 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $833 +$131 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $834 −$66 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $455 +$27 +6%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $39 +$11 +27%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $366 +$53 +14%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $152 +$214 +141%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 19 $272 +$5 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,009 −$456 -45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $283 +$17 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $852 +$295 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $902 +$157 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,453 +$1,166 +80%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $735 +$107 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,194 +$362 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4,620 +$570 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $8,348 +$6,551 +78%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $122 +$26 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $622 −$365 -59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,593 +$478 +30%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $674 +$63 +9%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$56 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $78 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$60 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,076 +$138 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $92 8m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $175 44m
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 55m
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 56m
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 56m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $79 56m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $9 56m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $82 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $169 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $0 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $0 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $21 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $72 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $442 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $280 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $232 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $174 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $234 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,158.84 · official $33,158.39 (match) · 3500 history records