Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bfd…7fa8 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$35 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days+$41
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$58
sports 3% −$10
crypto 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -54.6% -58.9% 0% 0% -58.9%
≤30d 29 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 48% -14.4%
≤90d 29 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 48% -14.4%
all 29 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 48% -14.4%
10% -25.4% 38% -22.6%
15% -32.6% 31% -30.1%
20% -39.2% 21% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage17d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$8 -41%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$3 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$99 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$7 -35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 6d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 34¢ $8 7d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 44¢ $10 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $20 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $14 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 40¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $50 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $5 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 12d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $50 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $10 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $20 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $129 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.32 · official $26.32 (match) · 50 history records