Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c00…7172 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,531 (-2%) realized −$1,532 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$39
other 39% −$865
sports 14% −$635
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.9% -11.3% 5% 0% -11.4%
all 124 -6.2% -15.1% 15% 11% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 11% -11.2%
10% -23.3% 11% -19.7%
15% -30.7% 8% -27.5%
20% -37.5% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$986) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized−$1,532
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage132d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $539 +$1 (+0%)
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $485 $485 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $761 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,838 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $175 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $556 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $226 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $304 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,835 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $410 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $911 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $410 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $893 −$893 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2,675 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,444 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $432 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $457 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $586 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $467 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $306 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $485 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $457 3h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $457 5h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $449 24h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $449 29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $462 46h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $462 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $435 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $435 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $463 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $464 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $486 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $453 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $454 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $537 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $764 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $745 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $747 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $653 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $654 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $751 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $752 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $709 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $710 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $562 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $562 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.66 · official $1,023.66 (match) · 421 history records