Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0c0e…434e
politics · 56 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,869,361 +100%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$532,188 · open +$7,743
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$960,740
Realized+$532,188
Unrealized+$7,743
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses33 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions137
Markets (closed)41 / 56
History coverage19d
Avg bet$33,501
Trades / day176.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 137 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,679
7 days−$35,847
14 days+$519,051
30 days+$532,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 78¢ $323,606 $326,071 +$2,465 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $141,801 $148,085 +$6,284 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $109,718 $112,187 +$2,469 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $58,743 $65,929 +$7,186 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $58,852 $59,552 +$700 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 44¢ $69,942 $55,423 −$14,519 (-21%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 34¢ 99¢ $10,780 $31,710 +$20,929 (+194%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $29,669 $30,810 +$1,141 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 81¢ $26,030 $26,444 +$414 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 76¢ $18,177 $14,222 −$3,955 (-22%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $9,516 $10,065 +$549 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 66¢ 86¢ $6,600 $8,550 +$1,950 (+30%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,632 $7,411 +$2,779 (+60%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 65¢ 46¢ $9,236 $6,537 −$2,700 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 50¢ $10,795 $6,286 −$4,508 (-42%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 93¢ 96¢ $5,639 $5,838 +$199 (+4%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,718 $3,925 −$792 (-17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $12,615 $3,797 −$8,818 (-70%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,155 $3,029 −$126 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 91¢ $2,304 $2,912 +$608 (+26%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 66¢ 36¢ $4,991 $2,769 −$2,221 (-45%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 88¢ 86¢ $2,459 $2,389 −$70 (-3%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,039 $2,194 +$1,155 (+111%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,365 $1,968 −$397 (-17%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,531 $1,859 +$328 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will another outcome occur in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runo Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff? Jun 14 $13 −$48 -385%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 14 $4 −$41 -1093%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11,879 −$11,879 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,157 −$1,157 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$495 +39901%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $0 $0 +7%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $14,423 +$560 +4%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $2,635 +$101 +4%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $265 +$3 +1%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $1,318 +$11 +1%
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $28,648 −$21,041 -73%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 09 $909 +$26 +3%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $919 +$174 +19%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $10,395 +$105 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $4,666 +$110 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $9,895 +$248 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26,000 −$4,188 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $17,802 +$722 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,000 +$1,611 +161%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24,000 +$510 +2%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 06 $2,831 +$71 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35,000 −$7,480 -21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,964 +$4,727 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $214,001 +$431,725 +202%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $366 +$51 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $4,583 +$151 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $219,566 +$10,851 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10,934 +$1,477 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $42,611 +$4,426 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33,085 +$3,768 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5 +$2 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $29,700 +$103,009 +347%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $923 +$52 +6%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $385 +$19 +5%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $283 +$15 +5%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $55,361 +$4,892 +9%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $100,680 +$8,154 +8%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $215 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$539,609
politics 20% −$3,463
other 5% +$132
finance 3% +$11,605
crypto 0% +$4,727
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 19m
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35m
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $186 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $244 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $119 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8,131 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,158 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $14,100 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $249 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $863 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5,207 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $996 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $662 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $493 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $249 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,326 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,628 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3,735 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $371 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $345 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +86.6% +68.8% 67% 11% -34.6%
≤30d 41 +57.3% +42.3% 80% 24% +43.1%
≤90d 41 +57.3% +42.3% 80% 24% +43.1%
all 41 +57.3% +42.3% 80% 24% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover176.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.3% 24% +43.1%
10% +28.7% 15% +29.4%
15% ← realistic here +16.2% 12% +16.9%
20% +4.8% 12% +5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960,739.51 · official $960,744.61 (match) · 3500 history records