Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c15…2a2d sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,670 (+3%) realized +$16,894 · open −$2,224
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate80%63W / 16L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$6,792per market
Trades / day113.2pace
Fees−$3,478est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,495
politics 32% −$2,224
crypto 10% +$3,847
world 1% +$127
other 1% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.6% -10.0% 82% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 79 +1.5% -8.2% 80% 9% -8.2%
≤90d 79 +1.5% -8.2% 80% 9% -8.2%
all 79 +1.5% -8.2% 80% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 9% -8.2%
10% -16.9% 5% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 4% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$5,913) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$256 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$7,256
Realized+$16,894
Unrealized−$2,224
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses63 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$3,478
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$6,792
Trades / day113.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $3,628 $5,852 +$2,224 (+61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $3,628 $1,404 −$2,224 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $2,997 +$3 +0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $6,881 +$3 +0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $1,980 +$20 +1%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3,287 +$1 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $7,740 +$63 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $17,245 −$237 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $6,919 −$921 -13%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $990 +$10 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $4,834 +$166 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $7,733 +$116 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1,495 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $302 +$106 +35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$140 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,475 −$592 -40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5,917 +$32 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $600 +$55 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,564 +$36 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $923 −$604 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3,959 +$91 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 +$24 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5,235 +$346 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,973 +$27 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,195 −$126 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6,983 +$125 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3,378 +$154 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6,810 +$190 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,942 +$58 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,473 +$21 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $660 +$130 +20%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,951 +$32 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,178 +$206 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $13,695 −$112 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $8,702 −$131 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8,731 +$269 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7,241 +$113 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5,825 +$45 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,469 +$51 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $600 +$120 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $598 +$410 +68%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4,886 +$114 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5,737 +$453 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,430 +$152 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $224 +$108 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $8,115 +$24 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5,795 +$223 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $6,156 +$245 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $2,810 +$67 +2%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,299 +$1 +0%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $2 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $5 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 95¢ $57 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 95¢ $8 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 96¢ $480 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $35 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 92¢ $460 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $5 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $0 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 91¢ $30 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 91¢ $7 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 91¢ $29 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $280 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $6 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $21 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $31 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $92 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 86¢ $0 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $67 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $6 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $55 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 88¢ $37 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 88¢ $4 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $341 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $104 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $6 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,255.97 · official $7,255.97 (match) · 3500 history records