Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c15…9a45 sports 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (616 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$785,446 (-2656%) realized −$785,243 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%43W / 50L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day615.7pace
Fees−$244est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$7,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,153
other 31% −$1,929
world 8% +$2,757
crypto 0% +$7
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (616 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 42% +2.2%
≤30d 93 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 42% +2.2%
≤90d 93 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 42% +2.2%
all 93 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 42% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover615.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 42% +2.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 38% -7.6%
15% -36.8% 32% -16.5%
20% -43.0% 27% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$190 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7,066
Realized−$785,243
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses43 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$244
Open positions88
Markets (closed)93 / 161
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day615.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 88 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $557 $752 +$194 (+35%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $630 $691 +$62 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 52¢ $392 $465 +$73 (+18%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $393 $416 +$23 (+6%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $352 $389 +$37 (+10%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 40¢ $392 $361 −$31 (-8%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 98¢ $303 $357 +$54 (+18%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $351 $352 +$1 (+0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 69¢ $390 $345 −$44 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 96¢ $272 $329 +$57 (+21%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $189 $276 +$87 (+46%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 28¢ $229 $231 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 24¢ $329 $230 −$99 (-30%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $175 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $196 $160 −$36 (-18%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 44¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 54¢ $107 $152 +$44 (+41%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 58¢ $175 $144 −$31 (-17%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 28¢ $96 $122 +$27 (+28%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 14¢ $150 $76 −$74 (-49%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $38 $66 +$28 (+74%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 30¢ $103 $50 −$53 (-51%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 48¢ 66¢ $36 $50 +$14 (+40%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $55 $49 −$5 (-10%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 26¢ 16¢ $68 $43 −$24 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$3 +44%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$6 +62%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $24 +$9 +37%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $449 +$288 +64%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $249 +$274 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$7 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $268 −$268 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $453 −$453 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $367 −$367 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $445 −$445 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $663 −$663 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $609 +$556 +91%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $99 +$97 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$13 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $452 +$197 +44%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $812 +$13 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $169 +$203 +120%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $710 +$40 +6%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$15 -65%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $209 −$209 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1 1m
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 6m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 11m
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 11m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 16m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1 31m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 32m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 37m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 47m
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 37¢ $1 57m
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 37¢ $1 57m
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 37¢ $1 57m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $17 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $22 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,066.17 · official $7,069.24 (match) · 3500 history records