Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0C 0x0c15…944d politics 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,880 (+75%) realized +$7,470 · open +$1,410
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +148% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day139.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1,596
politics 36% +$739
other 24% +$742
culture 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+124.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +62.7% +47.2% 78% 56% +22.0%
≤30d 18 +147.9% +124.3% 78% 56% +19.4%
≤90d 18 +147.9% +124.3% 78% 56% +19.4%
all 18 +147.9% +124.3% 78% 56% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +124.3% 56% +19.4%
10% ← realistic here +102.8% 50% +7.9%
15% +83.2% 39% -2.5%
20% +65.3% 39% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +148% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +233% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
38.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$132 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.09 per $1 lost it wins $4.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$9,037
Realized+$7,470
Unrealized+$1,410
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Open positions31
Markets (closed)18 / 43
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$275
Trades / day139.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $1,362 $2,817 +$1,456 (+107%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $862 $1,126 +$264 (+31%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $787 $715 −$72 (-9%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $813 $662 −$151 (-19%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $596 $570 −$26 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 85¢ $318 $340 +$22 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $350 $306 −$44 (-12%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $276 $294 +$19 (+7%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $210 $225 +$15 (+7%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $208 $221 +$13 (+6%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $210 $195 −$15 (-7%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $169 −$10 (-6%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $106 $119 +$13 (+12%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $108 $117 +$9 (+8%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $112 $104 −$8 (-7%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $98 +$8 (+8%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $120 +$110 +92%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $168 −$4 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $224 −$9 -4%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $60 +$142 +236%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $307 +$393 +128%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $96 +$84 +88%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $160 +$16 +10%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $284 +$74 +26%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $188 +$256 +136%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $724 +$704 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $625M? Jun 03 $100 +$8 +8%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $500M? Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $750M? Jun 03 $177 +$49 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 30 $417 −$417 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1 +$298 +22801%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $230 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $164 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $215 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $202 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 37¢ $6 3h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 20¢ $7 3h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 19¢ $21 3h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 7h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL Yes 16¢ $10 9h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 9h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 9h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 9h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 9h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 18¢ $23 12h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $37 12h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $73 12h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 13h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 18¢ $2 13h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 13h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 18¢ $4 13h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 18¢ $11 13h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,037.00 · official $9,037.00 (match) · 3500 history records