Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c17…ab38 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+7%) realized +$79 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% +66.7%
≤30d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% +66.7%
≤90d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% +66.7%
all 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% +66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 50% +66.7%
10% -16.9% 50% +50.7%
15% -25.0% 50% +36.2%
20% -32.3% 50% +22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$10 · ×10.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.09 per $1 lost it wins $10.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,432
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $778 $781 +$3 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $361 $378 +$17 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $155 $168 +$13 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $94 +$96 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 41m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 44m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $65 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $134 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $476 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $170 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $96 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $43 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $87 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $123 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,432.16 · official $1,432.16 (match) · 23 history records