Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c17…758c other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$21
politics 24% −$16
sports 20% −$4
crypto 9% −$6
economics 7% −$6
culture 3% −$1
world 3% −$3
finance 3% −$4
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 67 -1.2% -10.6% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 132 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 115
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage100d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $317 −$3 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $94 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 04 $45 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $144 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 04 $67 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $58 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $160 −$2 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $99 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $44 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $43 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 24h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $57 25h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $58 29h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 29h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $39 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 44h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $50 45h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $14 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $60 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $60 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $66 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $66 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $49 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.04 · official $50.04 (match) · 487 history records