trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 75% | 62% | -7.8% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 50% | 40% | -13.8% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 50% | 40% | -13.8% |
| all | 27 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 63% | 44% | -13.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 44% | -13.3% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 30% | -21.6% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 22% | -29.1% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 19% | -36.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | No | 76¢ | 82¢ | $189 | $205 | +$16 (+9%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 58¢ | 63¢ | $116 | $126 | +$10 (+9%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 82¢ | 82¢ | $115 | $116 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 75¢ | 80¢ | $82 | $87 | +$5 (+6%) |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 86¢ | 83¢ | $86 | $83 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 79¢ | 82¢ | $79 | $82 | +$4 (+4%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $29 | $28 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $26 | $26 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 47¢ | 40¢ | $24 | $20 | −$4 (-16%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 64¢ | 34¢ | $10 | $5 | −$5 (-46%) |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $3 | −$7 (-72%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $71 | +$29 | +42% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $78 | +$22 | +29% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $81 | −$67 | -82% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $108 | +$22 | +20% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $127 | +$13 | +10% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $6 | +$4 | +65% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $26 | +$4 | +17% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 19 | $19 | −$18 | -99% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Jun 08 | $478 | −$39 | -8% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Jun 07 | $310 | −$30 | -10% |
| Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri | Jun 07 | $367 | −$17 | -5% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 06 | $1,305 | −$48 | -4% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | Jun 01 | $9 | +$8 | +85% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$6 | +61% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Mar 01 | $1 | +$1 | +105% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 01 | $10 | +$6 | +61% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | Mar 01 | $17 | +$4 | +24% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 05 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Jan 05 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will France win on 2025-11-13? | Nov 14 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Nov 13 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |