Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c1d…d05e sports 392 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134 (-1%) realized −$119 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%113W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days+$39
14 days+$119
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$248
other 12% −$113
crypto 8% −$370
world 5% +$418
politics 0% −$53
finance 0% −$50
tech 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +40.1% +26.8% 37% 37% -2.4%
≤30d 42 -8.4% -17.1% 24% 24% -18.1%
≤90d 215 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 25% -21.5%
all 389 -2.2% -11.5% 29% 29% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 29% -13.1%
10% -20.0% 29% -21.4%
15% -27.7% 28% -29.0%
20% -34.8% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$24 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses113 / 276
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)389 / 392
History coverage160d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $86 $98 +$12 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $41 $14 −$27 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 +$40 +494%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$30 +96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$84 +510%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$53 +344%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$33 +105%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$66 +250%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 −$10 -44%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $46 −$4 -9%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 +$164 +572%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 07 $25 +$24 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $9 −$9 -97%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 24 $29 −$5 -16%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Will EC Vitória vs. SC Internacional end in a draw? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $35 −$33 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $28 +$12 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $22 −$21 -98%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 21 $31 $0 -1%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $25 +$34 +134%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $32 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 9¢ $26 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 36h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $31 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $26 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 16¢ $16 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $31 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $15 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 31¢ $26 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $7 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $46 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $12 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.86 · official $111.86 (match) · 1002 history records