Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c1d…b967 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$962 (+26%) realized +$577 · open +$385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$1,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$58
14 days+$275
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$616
crypto 13% +$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.2% -36.0% 50% 50% -35.7%
≤30d 4 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% +9.3%
≤90d 5 +4.4% -5.5% 60% 60% +15.7%
all 5 +4.4% -5.5% 60% 60% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 60% +15.7%
10% -14.6% 60% +4.7%
15% -22.8% 60% -5.4%
20% -30.4% 20% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$77 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,971
Realized+$577
Unrealized+$385
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage90d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $485 $846 +$360 (+74%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $500 $543 +$43 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$54 -13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $712 +$387 +54%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $800 +$317 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $203 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,099 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $712 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $135 63d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $150 63d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $150 63d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $350 63d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $350 63d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $350 63d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,117 63d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $800 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,970.77 · official $1,970.77 (match) · 107 history records