Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c1d…530b other 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$5
tech 19% −$3
world 16% $0
politics 15% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% −$2
culture 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 39 -1.7% -11.0% 3% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 113 -6.4% -15.3% 11% 1% -13.9%
all 182 -6.2% -15.1% 8% 1% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 1% -13.8%
10% -23.2% 0% -22.0%
15% -30.6% 0% -29.6%
20% -37.4% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 168
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage224d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Luis Carlos Heinze win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 80k? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be less May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $2 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Keenan Hayes win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Champ May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 09 $1 $0 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will paiN Gaming win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 15m
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $1 16m
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $1 25m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 26m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 33m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 34m
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 23h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 23h
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 23h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 23h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 47h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 47h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 47h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 47h
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 604 history records