Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c20…76bb other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-4%) realized −$303 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$32
14 days−$87
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$256
politics 12% −$2
world 11% −$35
crypto 9% +$37
finance 4% $0
sports 3% −$80
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 25% +15.3%
≤30d 20 +4.0% -5.9% 70% 30% -18.8%
≤90d 67 -11.3% -19.8% 48% 18% -14.4%
all 83 -10.0% -18.5% 46% 16% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 16% -13.7%
10% -26.3% 10% -22.0%
15% -33.4% 7% -29.5%
20% -40.0% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$303
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage132d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+63%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $29 $16 −$13 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$47 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $78 +$34 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $91 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$12 +472%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $92 +$21 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $68 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 38-39°F on May 8? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on May 8? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $139 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $131 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $84 +$27 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $147 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on May 1? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Apr 30 $70 −$7 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 46h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 16d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 21d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 23d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $93 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 27d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 27d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $112 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.39 · official $75.84 (match) · 257 history records