Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c21…7c63 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$166 (-3%) realized −$115 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%85W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$71
14 days−$180
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$13
other 12% −$196
sports 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 56% -28.7%
≤30d 24 -10.5% -19.0% 62% 33% -24.2%
≤90d 42 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 21% -15.2%
all 94 -1.9% -11.2% 90% 10% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 10% -11.8%
10% -19.7% 6% -20.2%
15% -27.5% 4% -28.0%
20% -34.6% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$35 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses85 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage159d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 67¢ $52 $1 −$51 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$7 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$42 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$7 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 +$13 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 01 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 20 $49 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? May 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 11? Apr 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $75 +$24 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 2? Apr 04 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 01 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 01 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 22? Mar 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 21? Mar 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? Mar 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 13? Mar 16 $55 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 12? Mar 13 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $62 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $55 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $54 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $54 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 93¢ $50 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $49 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $53 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $51 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 97¢ $49 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $49 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $46 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.57 · official $41.61 (match) · 183 history records