trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 13 | -79.3% | -81.3% | 8% | 8% | -78.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -81.3% | 8% | -78.5% |
| 10% | -83.0% | 8% | -80.6% |
| 15% | -84.7% | 8% | -82.4% |
| 20% | -86.2% | 8% | -84.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 12¢ | $4,351 | $3,283 | −$1,068 (-25%) |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | $2,860 | $1,680 | −$1,180 (-41%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $1,000 | $1,077 | +$77 (+8%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | $500 | $550 | +$50 (+10%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $500 | $536 | +$36 (+7%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $500 | $421 | −$79 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? | Jun 07 | $4,050 | −$4,050 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Nov 23 | $495 | −$495 | -100% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Nov 23 | $2,000 | −$2,000 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 09 | $1,008 | −$1,008 | -100% |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | Sep 02 | $1,050 | −$1,050 | -100% |
| Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2025? | Jul 23 | $529 | −$529 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 23 | $500 | −$339 | -68% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Jul 23 | $1,100 | −$732 | -66% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 26 | $919 | −$919 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Jun 24 | $2,000 | −$1,453 | -73% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jun 14 | $1,500 | −$1,500 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Apr 07 | $1,685 | +$1,285 | +76% |