Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c26…d223 crypto 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34,758 (+25%) realized +$1,097 · open +$33,661
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate84%311W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$413
7 days+$362
14 days+$352
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% +$60
other 9% +$33,601
crypto 8% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.4% -5.6% 95% 24% -1.8%
≤30d 371 -7.2% -16.0% 84% 5% -8.3%
≤90d 371 -7.2% -16.0% 84% 5% -8.3%
all 371 -7.2% -16.0% 84% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 5% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 2% -17.1%
15% -31.4% 1% -25.1%
20% -38.1% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$61,268
Realized+$1,097
Unrealized+$33,661
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses311 / 60
Open positions36
Markets (closed)371 / 374
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$366
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $9,830 $9,820 −$10 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $391 $7,975 +$7,584 (+1942%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $391 $7,950 +$7,559 (+1935%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 16¢ $391 $7,925 +$7,534 (+1929%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,920 $4,922 +$3 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $391 $2,825 +$2,434 (+623%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $391 $2,575 +$2,184 (+559%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $391 $2,300 +$1,909 (+489%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $383 $1,447 +$1,064 (+278%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $381 $1,437 +$1,057 (+278%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $384 $1,129 +$746 (+194%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $312 $1,016 +$704 (+225%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $391 $825 +$434 (+111%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $387 $595 +$208 (+54%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $575 +$184 (+47%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $312 $540 +$228 (+73%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $525 +$134 (+34%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $475 +$84 (+22%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $425 +$34 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $425 +$34 (+9%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $425 +$34 (+9%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $425 +$34 (+9%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $375 −$16 (-4%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $375 −$16 (-4%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $391 $375 −$16 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $288 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $195 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $298 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $288 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $98 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $507 +$91 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $507 +$91 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $323 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $420 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$88 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $117 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $67 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,401 7m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 26m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 31m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $8 35m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 39m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 43m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 57m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 57m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,730 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,539 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $77 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $65 3h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $11 5h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $111 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,268.19 · official $61,272.19 (match) · 3434 history records