Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c28…e0b8 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$21
world 21% −$1
politics 11% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -3.4% -12.6% 25% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -10.9%
10% -21.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage307d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $44 +$2 +5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $56 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $72 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $91 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $12 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Jan 31 $49 −$14 -29%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 30 $17 $0 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $131 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 06 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 28 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 08 $15 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $27 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $45 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $46 16h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $7 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $39 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $38 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $47 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $47 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $43 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $43 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $47 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $47 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $23 33d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $20 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records