Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c28…eb7f sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-7%) realized −$133 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$32
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$32
other 22% +$41
crypto 4% −$22
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +8.5% -1.8% 36% 36% -14.0%
≤30d 83 +0.6% -9.0% 37% 37% -17.5%
≤90d 83 +0.6% -9.0% 37% 37% -17.5%
all 83 +0.6% -9.0% 37% 37% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 37% -17.5%
10% -17.7% 31% -25.4%
15% -25.6% 25% -32.6%
20% -32.9% 19% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 52
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $30 +$9 +31%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $35 +$28 +79%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 +$7 +650%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$18 +60%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 +$44 +109%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $31 −$3 -10%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Second half draw? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +165%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 +$13 +1290%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$18 -88%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$11 -73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 −$8 -73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $30 11h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $30 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $20 11h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 11h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $35 11h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 19h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 62¢ $30 24h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $41 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 31h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 31h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 31h
Norway vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.51 · official $214.51 (match) · 142 history records