Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

0C 0x0c2d…41b2 other 12 markets active 8h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$19 (+22%) realized +$19 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+12.7%	+2.0%	58%	58%	+13.7%
≤30d	12	+12.7%	+2.0%	58%	58%	+13.7%
≤90d	12	+12.7%	+2.0%	58%	58%	+13.7%
all	12	+12.7%	+2.0%	58%	58%	+13.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.0%	58%	+13.7%
10%	-7.8%	58%	+2.9%
15%	-16.7%	58%	-7.1%
20%	-24.9%	50%	-16.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +19% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$19

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)12 / 12

History coverage5d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 12 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$6	+55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$10	+101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$4	-74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$8	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	64¢	$5	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	54¢	$5	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	84¢	$20	30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$5	30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$2	30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	14¢	$1	30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3	32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	52¢	$5	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records