Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0c2f…6742
weather · 44 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$7 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage46d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$10
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $51 +$49 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$83 +1192%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 31? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 31 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 24? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? May 24 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 17? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 22 $15 +$63 +433%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $27 −$27 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET May 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 4? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8PM ET May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 30? May 04 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 30 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 46% −$11
other 29% +$13
crypto 19% +$3
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 14d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 21d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 22d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 22d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +51.6% +37.1% 85% 12% +0.6%
≤90d 40 +26.2% +14.2% 80% 8% -9.1%
all 40 +26.2% +14.2% 80% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 8% -9.1%
10% +3.3% 8% -17.8%
15% -6.7% 8% -25.7%
20% -15.9% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 86 history records