Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c33…eae2 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%22W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 19% +$2
sports 19% −$16
politics 15% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.1% -8.6% 33% 8% -9.5%
≤30d 31 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 1% -9.6%
all 77 -4.0% -13.1% 29% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -21.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses22 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage530d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $16 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $71 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $47 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $71 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $32 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $64 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $186 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 49m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $21 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.82 · official $29.40 (match) · 312 history records