Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c34…daa6 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-30%) realized −$55 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$52
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$15
politics 44% −$70
other 6% +$2
crypto 3% −$5
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +18.1% +6.8% 58% 58% -41.1%
≤30d 13 +9.0% -1.4% 54% 54% -43.0%
≤90d 13 +9.0% -1.4% 54% 54% -43.0%
all 13 +9.0% -1.4% 54% 54% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 54% -43.0%
10% -10.8% 54% -48.5%
15% -19.4% 54% -53.4%
20% -27.3% 54% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 26¢ 41¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 49¢ 32¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Natus Vincere 36¢ 39¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 73¢ 71¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$18 +118%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $80 −$71 -88%
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $5 42m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $13 3h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $10 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $33 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $15 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 20¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $10 4d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $10 4d
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 53¢ $1 6d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 11d
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian gov BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 11d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 11d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 11d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.38 · official $31.38 (match) · 32 history records