Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0c35…1c72 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,655 (-11%) realized −$2,655 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 91L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,875
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +13.3% +2.5% 55% 55% +2.6%
≤30d 20 +13.3% +2.5% 55% 55% +2.6%
≤90d 48 -5.1% -14.2% 52% 50% -11.3%
all 154 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 40% -17.7%
10% -19.5% 39% -25.6%
15% -27.3% 37% -32.8%
20% -34.4% 34% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$154 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage298d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$12 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$67 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$45 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$111 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$44 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$21 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$51 +142%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -78%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$182 +231%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$18 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$45 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$88 +209%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 10 $10 −$8 -76%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 10 $6 +$4 +67%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 10 $16 −$13 -76%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 10 $21 +$13 +63%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 10 $36 +$9 +26%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 10 $36 +$19 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 05 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 05 $44 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 05 $85 −$83 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 05 $40 +$45 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 05 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 05 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 05 $30 +$35 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 05 $33 +$44 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 05 $80 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 05 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 05 $30 −$29 -96%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 4PM ET Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $14 −$12 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $11 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $12 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $27 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 850 history records