Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c38…4c92 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$3
other 18% −$2
crypto 3% +$1
politics 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -10.1%
all 24 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -10.0%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage456d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $107 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 03 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $4 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $37 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $37 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 44h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $17 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $13 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $31 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $20 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $14 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $30 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $37 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $37 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.54 (match) · 71 history records