Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0C 0x0c39…217a sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$252 (+24%) realized +$256 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$132

14 days+$245

30 days+$245

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)+32.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+38.5%	+25.3%	64%	64%	+9.0%
≤30d	16	+46.8%	+32.9%	69%	69%	+16.0%
≤90d	16	+46.8%	+32.9%	69%	69%	+16.0%
all	16	+46.8%	+32.9%	69%	69%	+16.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.9%	69%	+16.0%
10%	+20.1%	69%	+4.9%
15%	+8.5%	69%	-5.2%
20%	-2.1%	62%	-14.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +96% → late -3% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$53 vs −$68 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$156

Realized+$256

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage12d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Portugal	44¢	44¢	$80	$79	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Croatia	42¢	40¢	$80	$77	−$3 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-98%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 22	$81	−$80	-98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$61	+$110	+180%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$40	+$17	+42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	+$28	+70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$122	−$120	-98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 19	$61	−$60	-98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$101	+$87	+86%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$61	+$69	+114%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$41	+$65	+158%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$20	+$35	+172%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$61	−$60	-99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$41	+$39	+97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$40	+$24	+60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$41	+$43	+105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$41	+$67	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	BUY Croatia	42¢	$81	2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$81	2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$20	20h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY Iraq	44¢	$81	25h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	35¢	$61	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$40	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$41	3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	42¢	$122	3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Haiti	48¢	$61	4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	53¢	$101	5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	46¢	$61	6d
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	36¢	$20	7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	38¢	$41	7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	57¢	$61	8d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	50¢	$41	9d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	BUY Haiti	62¢	$40	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$108	11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$41	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.23 · official $156.23 (match) · 30 history records