Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c39…36c1 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$172 (-12%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$32
other 11% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 12 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤90d 12 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 50% -18.8%
all 12 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 50% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 50% -18.8%
10% -35.1% 50% -26.6%
15% -41.4% 42% -33.7%
20% -47.1% 17% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$91 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $230 +$103 +45%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $61 +$59 +97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $74 −$73 -99%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $98 −$97 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $144 −$141 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $164 −$119 -72%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $91 +$70 +76%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $203 +$79 +39%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $180 +$45 +25%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 89¢ $223 22m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 43¢ $110 51m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ $110 54m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 42¢ $120 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $120 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $61 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 36¢ $61 2h
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 50¢ $61 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 52¢ $74 4h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 40¢ $98 26h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 29¢ $101 26h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 33¢ $43 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $46 37h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $164 39h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 56¢ $91 41h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 58¢ $101 41h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 43¢ $110 41h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 39¢ $102 42h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 54¢ $114 43h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 51¢ $111 43h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Qinwen Zheng 23¢ $111 43h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 10¢ $45 43h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 74¢ $144 43h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 44¢ $24 44h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 51¢ $101 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records