Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c3a…a56b sports 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 685d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$4,776 (+3%) realized +$5,715 · open −$939
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%122W / 122L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$743per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2,400est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$4,316
14 days+$7,327
30 days+$1,392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$4,731
other 6% +$343
world 1% −$2,200
politics 1% +$137
crypto 0% +$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 46% -2.2%
≤30d 118 +20.9% +9.4% 48% 47% -8.4%
≤90d 171 +27.6% +15.4% 49% 48% -8.7%
all 244 +24.4% +12.5% 50% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 48% -7.7%
10% +1.8% 46% -16.5%
15% -8.1% 42% -24.6%
20% -17.1% 39% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$623 vs −$587 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

685d coverage
Net worth$2,817
Realized+$5,715
Unrealized−$939
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses122 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,400
Open positions5
Markets (closed)244 / 249
History coverage685d
Avg bet$743
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $980 $990 +$10 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 21¢ 32¢ $616 $936 +$319 (+52%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $490 $485 −$5 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $410 $405 −$5 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ $1,260 $1 −$1,258 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $390 +$610 +156%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $4,198 +$1,698 +40%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,120 −$34 -3%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5,530 +$3,470 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,135 +$865 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 15 $1,090 −$1,087 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,155 −$1,140 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,230 −$2,200 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $590 −$590 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,380 +$1,620 +117%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,220 +$780 +64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $900 −$900 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $675 −$675 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,160 +$840 +72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $530 +$470 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,359 +$640 +47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $290 +$709 +245%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 14 $510 +$490 +96%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $420 +$1,080 +257%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $650 +$350 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $450 −$450 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $540 −$540 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3,045 +$2,955 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $477 +$523 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,282 +$1,718 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,715 +$1,285 +75%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $983 −$973 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $547 −$540 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,792 −$1,770 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,499 +$500 +33%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 12 $1,400 −$1,381 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $427 +$573 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,517 +$1,483 +98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $597 +$403 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $205 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $26 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $3 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $12 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $30 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $15 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $27 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $13 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $13 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $13 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $27 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $7 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $17 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 21¢ $106 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 21¢ $81 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $4 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $117 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $22 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $32 52m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $995 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,817.14 · official $2,817.14 (match) · 2640 history records