Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c3b…ab63 other 62 markets active 17h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$280 (-7%) realized −$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days−$638
14 days−$446
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$820
sports 40% +$633
world 4% −$155
crypto 2% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -42.2% -47.7% 16% 16% -45.0%
≤30d 62 -14.6% -22.7% 23% 23% -19.2%
≤90d 62 -14.6% -22.7% 23% 23% -19.2%
all 62 -14.6% -22.7% 23% 23% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 23% -19.2%
10% -30.1% 23% -27.0%
15% -36.9% 23% -34.0%
20% -43.1% 23% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$61 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage11d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $52 +$167 +324%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $52 +$244 +472%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $104 −$32 -30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $62 +$138 +223%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $52 +$30 +58%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $51 +$68 +132%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $52 +$309 +596%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $52 +$141 +273%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $52 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $52 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 41h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 41h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $72 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $62 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $82 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $52 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $52 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $52 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.39 · official $217.39 (match) · 121 history records