Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c3c…5eea world 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,833 (+2%) realized +$15,059 · open −$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate75%191W / 62L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$3,021per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$757
7 days−$1,956
14 days+$126
30 days−$4,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$14,240
politics 5% +$737
other 2% +$1,418
finance 2% −$4,019
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 17% -17.3%
≤30d 76 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 12% -11.9%
≤90d 177 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 18% -8.1%
all 253 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 14% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 14% -8.1%
10% -17.1% 9% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 5% -24.9%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$4,649) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$386 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$8,097
Realized+$15,059
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses191 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)253 / 262
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$3,021
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $3,853 $3,628 −$225 (-6%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1,856 $1,851 −$5 (-0%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,271 $1,281 +$9 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $398 $395 −$4 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $330 $333 +$3 (+1%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? No 97¢ 98¢ $329 $332 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $187 $198 +$11 (+6%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 70¢ 79¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$27 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 23 $158 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,090 +$59 +6%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $226 +$7 +3%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $228 +$8 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $6,612 −$828 -12%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $134 −$10 -7%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 20 $87 +$42 +49%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $985 −$232 -24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $2,482 −$452 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5,571 −$373 -7%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $326 −$251 -77%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $34 +$18 +52%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $475 +$2 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,866 +$81 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,291 −$35 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $398 +$451 +113%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,452 −$70 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$70 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,217 +$2,180 +98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $720 +$150 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4,649 −$59 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $764 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,078 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $510 +$30 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2,018 −$89 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,433 +$137 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $291 −$2 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $4,542 −$460 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $840 −$150 -18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1,647 −$46 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2,500 +$28 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $1,381 +$15 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $542 +$13 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $282 +$23 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $98 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $146 −$52 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $267 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $143 +$14 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7,194 −$7,168 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7,180 +$112 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,980 +$16 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $367 −$367 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $7,421 +$140 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $660 28m
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $771 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $795 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $80 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $158 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,850 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $101 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $181 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 97¢ $329 3h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $158 5h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 96¢ $1,271 5h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $179 6h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 6h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $81 22h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $129 22h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $477 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $100 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 24h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 26h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 26h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $172 27h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $54 27h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $30 28h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $83 28h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,096.52 · official $8,096.52 (match) · 3500 history records