Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0C 0x0c3d…f757 sports 582 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27,645 (+2%) realized +$28,397 · open −$752
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate98%552W / 10L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$2,231per market
Trades / day80.7pace
Fees−$591est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$11,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$699
7 days+$4,269
14 days+$10,452
30 days+$20,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$13,259
other 18% +$6,534
crypto 0% +$16
world 0% +$57
politics 0% −$31
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +2.9% -6.9% 97% 8% -8.6%
≤30d 496 +5.1% -4.9% 98% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 562 +4.9% -5.1% 98% 4% -8.0%
all 562 +4.9% -5.1% 98% 4% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 4% -8.0%
10% -14.2% 2% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -30.1% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,980) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$454 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.54 per $1 lost it wins $5.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$11,112
Realized+$28,397
Unrealized−$752
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses552 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$591
Open positions19
Markets (closed)562 / 582
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$2,231
Trades / day80.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $6,974 $6,692 −$282 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $1,583 $1,508 −$75 (-5%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $468 $475 +$7 (+1%)
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals No 99¢ 100¢ $458 $463 +$4 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 68¢ 45¢ $566 $375 −$192 (-34%)
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $296 $297 +$1 (+0%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 69¢ $228 $239 +$11 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 34¢ 26¢ $286 $223 −$63 (-22%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $229 $198 −$31 (-14%)
Will Benfica qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? Yes 98¢ 57¢ $245 $141 −$103 (-42%)
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $119 $123 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? No 92¢ 99¢ $103 $111 +$8 (+8%)
Will Jhon Córdoba be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 92¢ 98¢ $96 $102 +$6 (+7%)
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? No 98¢ 99¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kevin Castaño be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Declan Rice be in England's Starting 11? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will David Ospina be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 98¢ 51¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diogo Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $155 +$106 +69%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $270 +$8 +3%
Will José Sá be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $393 +$2 +0%
Will Gonçalo Guedes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $170 +$10 +6%
Will Rui Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $77 +$37 +48%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $668 +$32 +5%
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -89%
Adil Boulbina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $157 +$15 +10%
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $116 +$5 +4%
Will Valentín Barco be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $198 +$4 +2%
Will Cristian Romero be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $151 +$5 +4%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $118 +$6 +5%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $281 +$18 +7%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $133 +$2 +2%
Will Nicolás González be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $227 +$6 +2%
Will Giovani Lo Celso be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $116 +$2 +2%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $166 +$3 +2%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $236 +$19 +8%
Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $124 +$3 +3%
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $290 +$14 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $43,960 −$400 -1%
Morten Thorsby: 1+ goals Jun 17 $176 +$15 +8%
Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals Jun 17 $53 +$12 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,876 +$29 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $37,105 +$895 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,442 +$25 +1%
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $357 +$10 +3%
Will Wes Unseld Jr. be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $122 +$2 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2,740 +$28 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals Jun 16 $72 +$7 +10%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $171 +$4 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39,600 +$360 +1%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $203 +$6 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $9,653 +$98 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26,765 +$270 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,381 +$14 +1%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $364 +$39 +11%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $7,224 −$1,061 -15%
Will Zeno Debast be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $177 +$16 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 36m
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 92¢ $103 1h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $119 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $25 3h
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $136 3h
Will Portugal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 5h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $750 6h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $750 6h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,937 7h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,889 7h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $63 10h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43,955 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $411 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $990 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7,920 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $16,266 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7,920 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $26 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7,772 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2,062 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $26 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $172 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,112.28 · official $11,116.48 (match) · 3500 history records