Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c3d…3681 sports 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 510d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$672 (+5%) realized +$670 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate69%187W / 83L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$419
14 days+$369
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$225
crypto 15% +$208
other 3% +$190
weather 0% −$50
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +38.3% +25.1% 75% 75% +15.3%
≤30d 109 +5.4% -4.7% 58% 58% -1.9%
≤90d 253 +3.6% -6.3% 71% 70% -6.5%
all 270 +5.2% -4.8% 69% 68% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 68% -5.5%
10% -14.0% 61% -14.5%
15% -22.3% 22% -22.8%
20% -29.9% 17% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$36 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

510d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$670
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses187 / 83
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)270 / 272
History coverage510d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 88¢ $68 $76 +$8 (+12%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 66¢ $68 $62 −$6 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $68 +$20 +29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 +$39 +246%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$16 +46%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $68 +$20 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$16 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 +$49 +63%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $68 +$14 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $68 +$14 +20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 +$33 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $69 +$48 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $48 +$12 +26%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $48 +$12 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$45 +442%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +234%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$46 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $69 +$26 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $68 +$20 +29%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $68 +$13 +18%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$11 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$27 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $30 −$14 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Kōchi United SC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $50 +$12 +25%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
SD Eibar vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 2.5 May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. Burgos CF: O/U 2.5 May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Real Valladolid CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 2.5 May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $68 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $69 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $16 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $34 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $68 14h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $68 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $78 15h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $78 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $48 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $69 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 67¢ $69 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $68 20h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $68 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $4 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $48 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $48 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 40h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $69 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $69 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $68 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $38 46h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $30 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $68 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 39¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.14 · official $138.14 (match) · 740 history records