Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c3e…3c4c sports 982 markets active 4h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$36,155 (+16%) realized +$36,155 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate72%705W / 276L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day62.3pace
Fees−$2,074est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$580
other 31% +$16,255
world 1% −$74
crypto 0% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +2.7% -7.1% 69% 57% -26.0%
≤30d 558 +17.5% +6.3% 70% 61% -10.0%
≤90d 981 +25.9% +13.9% 72% 62% -2.2%
all 981 +25.9% +13.9% 72% 62% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 62% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 46% -11.6%
15% -7.0% 34% -20.1%
20% -16.1% 25% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$142 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$36,155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses705 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,074
Open positions0
Markets (closed)981 / 982
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$224
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 981 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $299 +$65 +22%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $47 +$9 +19%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $299 +$56 +19%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,622 −$3,600 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5,425 −$5,400 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5,466 −$5,400 -99%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $728 +$165 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $68 +$24 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +109%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $353 −$34 -10%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $472 −$470 -100%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $399 +$43 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $315 +$55 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,873 +$606 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $113 +$11 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,629 +$805 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 +$2 +12%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,838 −$1,668 -59%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$8 -63%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $269 −$268 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $648 +$1,198 +185%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $58 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $248 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $840 −$670 -80%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $134 +$2 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $647 +$84 +13%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $588 +$480 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,126 +$161 +14%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$46 +128%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $196 +$44 +22%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$16 +57%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$19 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6,845 +$4,001 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Spread: CD Concepción (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$18 +36%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$59 +146%
Will CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $678 +$165 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $844 +$545 +64%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $399 −$8 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $355 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $100 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $100 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1,808 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $1,853 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,814 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,806 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,807 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 90¢ $1,805 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,811 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 86¢ $1,807 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $47 5h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 87¢ $332 8h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria $2 8h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria $8 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $278 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 41¢ $40 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 8h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria $12 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 39¢ $353 8h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 8h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 91¢ $456 8h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $68 8h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 75¢ $236 8h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 79¢ $161 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records