Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c3f…c16a other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,783 (+52%) realized +$1,811 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 47L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$121
14 days+$221
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,748
crypto 8% −$61
sports 3% −$17
weather 0% −$5
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -24.8% -31.9% 15% 8% -28.3%
≤30d 24 +31.1% +18.7% 12% 8% -21.8%
≤90d 49 +27.5% +15.3% 14% 12% +23.3%
all 56 +42.8% +29.2% 16% 14% +49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.2% 14% +49.4%
10% +16.9% 12% +35.1%
15% +5.6% 12% +22.1%
20% -4.8% 12% +10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$39 · ×10.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$1,811
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage94d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $227 $199 −$28 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $50 −$7 -14%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $108 −$60 -56%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $31 −$7 -22%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $31 −$14 -46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$52 +249%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 −$8 -28%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $159 +$12 +8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $49 −$14 -29%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $41 −$10 -25%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 22 $7 −$6 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$39 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $53 +$371 +702%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $27 −$25 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 05 $326 −$304 -93%
43 million or more views Jun 01 $21 −$11 -54%
between 39 and 41 million views Jun 01 $29 −$28 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 31 $34 −$34 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 25 $91 −$69 -77%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $61 +$1,147 +1880%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 17 $309 −$296 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 06 $306 +$511 +167%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 03 $116 −$83 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 03 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 58 million views on day 2 Apr 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2 Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 2 Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Apr 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Apr 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 20 $251 −$251 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Apr 18 $3 −$3 -84%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Apr 07 $4 −$3 -83%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Apr 06 $93 −$93 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $53 −$52 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $39 −$35 -91%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $114 +$491 +431%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Apr 04 $15 −$4 -26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 27 $40 −$24 -60%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? Mar 26 $59 −$56 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Mar 24 $22 −$5 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? BUY Yes $8 47m
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 48m
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 18¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes $24 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes $17 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $31 2h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $19 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $78 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $17 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $39 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $42 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.98 · official $206.98 (match) · 246 history records