Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c42…ec8f other 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 25% −$19
politics 8% −$5
economics 7% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 194 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage127d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $284 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $273 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $167 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $295 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $277 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $392 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $201 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $400 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $166 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $511 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 3h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 11h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 13h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 15h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 20h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 22h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 24h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 25h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 27h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 29h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 34h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 36h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 41h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 41h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 42h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 44h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.68 · official $45.68 (match) · 1307 history records