Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c45…88a6 crypto 552 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$172 (-2%) realized −$175 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%286W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$65
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$224
other 1% +$36
weather 0% −$14
world 0% −$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +20.0%
≤30d 24 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +20.0%
≤90d 275 +2.2% -7.6% 54% 45% -11.0%
all 551 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 40% -12.1%
10% -19.9% 28% -20.5%
15% -27.6% 23% -28.2%
20% -34.7% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses286 / 265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)551 / 552
History coverage151d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 60¢ 80¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$42 +567%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 29 $7 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 29 $11 −$8 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 25 $12 −$11 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 22 $29 −$27 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$7 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $23 +$13 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 22 $22 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 22 $14 +$9 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$7 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 22 $4 +$4 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 22 $15 +$3 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 22 $0 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$8 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $287 −$286 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 25 $50 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 25 $50 +$19 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 25 $46 −$45 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.25 · official $13.75 (match) · 1167 history records