Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c46…3191 other 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%19W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 21% −$23
culture 8% −$10
politics 7% −$4
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$4
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 164 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses19 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage141d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $166 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $718 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $352 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $743 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $565 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $669 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $699 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $425 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $343 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $555 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $370 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $509 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 25m
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 7h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 13h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 15h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 16h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 18h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 19h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 21h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 22h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 28h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 29h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 34h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 36h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 37h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 45h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.89 · official $62.89 (match) · 1415 history records