Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0C 0x0c49…1862 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$835 (-30%) realized −$951 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$272
7 days+$385
14 days+$485
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +22.9% +11.2% 32% 32% +38.6%
≤30d 44 +18.7% +7.4% 32% 30% +31.2%
≤90d 44 +18.7% +7.4% 32% 30% +31.2%
all 44 +18.7% +7.4% 32% 30% +31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 30% +31.2%
10% -2.8% 30% +18.6%
15% -12.2% 30% +7.2%
20% -20.8% 27% -3.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$37 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$951
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage11d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 51¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets New York Mets 0¢ 46¢ $0 $59 +$59 (+0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 0¢ 42¢ $0 $59 +$59 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 37¢ 36¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 63¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 76¢ 75¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 22 $40 −$3 -8%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $61 +$121 +197%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $61 +$52 +86%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $61 +$121 +197%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$48 +119%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $61 +$44 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 −$14 -36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $61 +$50 +83%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 +$34 +83%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $61 +$44 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $40 +$22 +54%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $61 +$23 +38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $61 +$76 +125%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $61 +$39 +65%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $61 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $61 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 76¢ $40 1h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $40 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $61 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $61 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 47¢ $61 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 37¢ $61 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 61¢ $37 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 57¢ $41 25h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $41 25h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $40 25h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $41 25h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $40 25h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 38¢ $61 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $61 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $61 25h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $41 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $61 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $61 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $61 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $61 2d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 61¢ $26 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 57¢ $41 2d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $41 2d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 94¢ $40 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $61 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $61 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $61 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 29¢ $61 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $61 2d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.42 · official $316.42 (match) · 132 history records