Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c4a…eed1 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$4
other 27% −$3
politics 9% −$2
sports 9% +$5
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 0% -8.8%
all 31 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -8.7%
10% -18.7% 6% -17.4%
15% -26.5% 6% -25.4%
20% -33.7% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage480d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $21 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 +$4 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? Mar 31 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $19 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $9 −$3 -34%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 1? Mar 03 $7 +$2 +37%
Butler vs. Villanova Mar 03 $8 +$5 +54%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 01 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $26 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $4 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 10h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 14h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $47 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $45 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $7 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $21 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.32 · official $26.32 (match) · 94 history records