Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c4d…a427 other 21 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9,370 (+6%) realized +$9,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,027per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$12,246
sports 5% +$778
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 43% -1.5%
≤30d 21 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 43% -1.5%
≤90d 21 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 43% -1.5%
all 21 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 43% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 43% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 38% -11.0%
15% -29.3% 24% -19.6%
20% -36.2% 10% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$8,711) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,833 vs −$2,976 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7,027
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27,233 +$9,069 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20,624 +$2,728 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12,095 +$8,499 +70%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $3,535 +$1,684 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6,608 +$267 +4%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $1,001 +$45 +4%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $2,357 +$153 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,150 +$3,311 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,796 +$278 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,018 −$1,008 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6,047 −$4,782 -79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6,855 +$1,825 +27%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,055 −$1,122 -55%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,134 −$1,104 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,021 −$534 -52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,022 −$385 -38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14,936 −$14,834 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,810 +$4,121 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,571 +$1,982 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,711 −$36 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,994 +$2,865 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $20,124 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $11,107 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $7,109 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $20,624 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $12,095 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 100¢ $5,218 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $6,608 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 67¢ $3,535 12h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 77¢ $87 18h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 96¢ $1,001 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 95¢ $2,003 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 89¢ $237 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 89¢ $25 19h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 89¢ $4 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3,150 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,074 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,506 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $290 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $510 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $126 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 36h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $372 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records