Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c4d…9e37 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$97 (+1%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$3
sports 28% +$78
tech 15% +$5
finance 12% +$5
crypto 11% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -31.4% -37.9% 67% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 16 -4.9% -13.9% 94% 6% -8.4%
all 17 -4.6% -13.7% 94% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 6% -8.5%
10% -21.9% 0% -17.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$844) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$38 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage95d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $931 +$5 +1%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $40 −$38 -95%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $964 +$5 +0%
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 20 $183 +$1 +0%
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 20 $250 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $345 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $617 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $961 +$1 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $494 +$15 +3%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $847 +$99 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 03 $442 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? Apr 02 $405 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 23 above $120? Mar 29 $844 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 99¢ $931 25d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming $2 26d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming $10 26d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming $10 26d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming $2 26d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming $18 26d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $964 35d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $183 42d
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $250 42d
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $140 42d
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $150 42d
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $140 42d
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $617 49d
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $345 49d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $961 65d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 97¢ $494 77d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Hornets 100¢ $547 84d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Hornets 75¢ $300 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $442 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $405 90d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 23 above $120? BUY No 100¢ $844 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.90 · official $205.90 (match) · 39 history records