Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c4e…7d6f crypto 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-2%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate55%122W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$166
sports 18% −$6
other 1% +$3
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.0% -13.2% 68% 18% -12.3%
≤30d 112 -11.6% -20.0% 63% 20% -13.5%
≤90d 160 -8.9% -17.5% 59% 23% -13.4%
all 220 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 26% -13.1%
10% -26.6% 16% -21.4%
15% -33.7% 11% -29.0%
20% -40.2% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses122 / 98
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)220 / 220
History coverage157d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 220 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$14 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $79 +$6 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $13 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 745 history records