Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c4e…dae8 weather 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.2%
all 11 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $241 $241 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $237 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $236 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $234 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $231 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $235 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $232 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $241 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $241 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $240 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $240 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $237 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $237 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $237 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $238 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $236 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $236 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $234 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $234 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $234 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $220 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $220 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $234 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $231 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $231 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $235 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $234 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $232 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $232 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $232 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.64 · official $240.64 (match) · 23 history records