Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c53…8de7 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 37% −$1
politics 12% −$12
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 45 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -10.6%
10% -19.4% 2% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage346d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $75 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $15 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $11 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $18 $0 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in the New York City Mayoral Democ Jul 14 $15 −$11 -76%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $33 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $4 $0 -13%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $21 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $4 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 34h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $33 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $33 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.17 · official $35.62 (match) · 152 history records